soccer and physics

so, today while I was eating my lunch and reading my Physics Today magazine, I came across a short article that combined two of my favorite things: physics and soccer. if you have a subscription to PT, you can look at the article here: http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-59/iss-6/p26b.shtml

for those of you non-physics people, here is what it basically was about. it was titled, "Soccer obeys Bessel-function statistics", so right away I knew it was going to be good.
Metin Tolan, an experimental physicist at the University of Dortmund, did a study of about 34,000 professional soccer games and looked at number of goals scored and probability of winning based on this. "We approximated a soccer team by a radioactive source. A soccer team emits goals according to Poisson statistics." as it turns out, for soccer, a Bessel-function (a modified Bessel function results from summing over products of probabilities expressed as Poisson distributions) is a good fit for all the data. therefore, based on this and looking at simulations and past performance of teams, he says that Brazil has a 15% chance of winning this year's World Cup, and Germany a 10.5% chance. however, when factoring in home field advantage (which usually gives you 0.6 to 1 extra goal), Germany is moved up to a 33% chance.
we'll see what happens. the first game is this friday!